Connect with us

Aviation

Covid-19 Will Limit Aviation’s Growth For 10 Years, New Data Shows

The aviation industry is entering a decade of uncertainty, considerable financial pressures, and smaller than expected fleets. Fewer aircraft means less aircraft manufacturing and less maintenance.

Published

on

By 2031, there will still be fewer <a class=aircraft flying than if Covid-19 hadn’t happened.” data-height=”2471″ data-width=”3588″>

By 2031, there will still be fewer aircraft flying than if Covid-19 hadn’t happened. Photo by Alex … [+] Bona/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images

SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images

By Tom Cooper

Tom is a vice president at Oliver Wyman who advises aerospace companies, including providers in the maintenance, repair, and overhaul aftermarket.

By 2031, the global aviation fleet will include over 36,500 aircraft. While higher than the currently depressed total of 23,700, it still falls 2,500 planes short of the 39,000 it was projected to reach in 2030 — that is, before Covid-19 sent the aviation industry into a tailspin.

While vaccines may help get Covid-19 under control over the next year or two, the aftermath of the disease that so far killed two million people worldwide will continue to curb growth for industries like aviation for the next 10. Airlines, aircraft manufacturing, and maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) providers are now entering a decade of uncertainty, considerable financial pressure, and smaller than expected fleets because of the coronavirus pandemic. It’s a vicious cycle of less travel requiring smaller fleets, which in turn means that fewer aircraft need to be manufactured, and fewer planes repaired.

According to the latest Oliver Wyman Fleet & Global MRO Forecast 2021-2031, released today, preservation of cash will continue to be a top priority for all segments of the industry over the next few years. While most demand will recover before the middle of the decade, there are indications that some portions of travel may not fully get back on track even after that.

Except for airlines in China, where domestic travel returned to pre-pandemic levels by November 2020, global carriers will still burn millions in cash daily for much of the year — but probably not all of it. Some will face the unsettling prospect of restructuring and consolidation. In 2020, the International Air Transport Association estimated that global airlines would lose more than $118 billion that year and close to another $40 billion in 2021. Dozens of airlines sought bankruptcy protection or stopped flying entirely in the first year of Covid.

How the fleet will grow over the next decade

How the fleet will grow over the next decade

Oliver Wyman

Aircraft backlog to work through `

In 2020, Covid-related pressure on airline cash flow and reduced demand for air travel led global carriers to put thousands of aircraft into storage, retire twice as many as normal, convert some into cargo planes, and cancel or defer some deliveries of new planes. Given the inventory backlog, more aircraft will be delivered to airlines over the next several years than will be produced by aerospace manufacturers. While production and deliveries are closely aligned in normal years, the imbalance reflects conflicting pressures on airframe manufacturers to balance the realities of lower market demand with needs of key suppliers to maintain enough production.

Other aerospace revenue also may be in jeopardy. The early retirement of planes may reduce aerospace sales of new parts because of increased competition from the surge in supply of used components and green-time engines harvested from retired aircraft. It will take as much as three years to work through the excess of used serviceable material.

For MRO companies, a smaller fleet translates into less work. Demand is expected to be 33%, or $60 billion, below combined pre-Covid projections for 2020 and 2021. While the market is beginning to recover, the long-term MRO growth trend is now roughly half of pre‑Covid expectations. Cumulatively, MRO demand is expected to be $95 billion lower over the forecast period.

Opportunities for growth

Despite the reduced expectations for MRO, the compound annual growth of the sector between 2019 and 2031 is projected at three percent. The combination of near-term lower demand and long-term growth prospects has created an attractive environment for private equity investors, and interest in MRO is high.

The popularity of narrowbody aircraft is also on the rise. For years, the narrowbody share of the total fleet has increased as the improving range capability and attractive seat mile efficiency of the class have made the aircraft the choice of low-cost carriers. This trend is expected to continue as more airlines align fleets to the demand realities of Covid-19.

While forecasts for narrowbody production are 40% below 2018 levels for 2021, we expect the aircraft class to recover to within 10% of our original pre-Covid projections for the final years of the forecast period. One bright spot has been sales of A321LR, which remain strong even in the face of the pandemic. The aircraft offers sufficient range to serve routes that were previously flown with Boeing BA 757s or widebody aircraft, as well as providing airlines increased flexibility in their scheduling.

Deliveries of narrowbodies in 2021 will also be bolstered by decisions from the Federal Aviation Administration and European Union Air Safety Agency to recertify the Boeing 737 MAX for commercial service. Other regulators are expected to follow suit. More than 20 737s have already made it into carrier fleets since the recertification, but there are 400 to 450 more MAX aircraft that were built in 2020 and sit in Boeing’s inventory waiting to be delivered or sold. In addition, the number of narrowbodies in the fleet will be expanded by the almost 400 737s that airlines have had in storage since the plane’s grounding in March 2019.

The impact of less business and international travel

In contrast, widebody aircraft production has seen a significant decline because of Covid-19’s impact on long-haul travel demand. Over the forecast period, we expect widebody production to be as much as 40% below pre-pandemic expectations unless there’s a faster-than-expected recovery in long-haul routes.

International travel — which accounts for the bulk of long-haul — evaporated in the early days of Covid-19 and continues to be hard-hit, which has had implications for widebodies. Over the last year, nations around the world have been tightly regulating cross-border travel in an effort to keep out or at least contain the pandemic. Border closings and sudden requirements to quarantine for 14 days have discouraged travel between countries, with passengers fearful of being stranded or unable to get home. Under a new executive order from President Joe Biden, travelers entering the United States must provide proof of a recent negative Covid-19 test prior to entry — a requirement that already exists in some other countries.

Contributing to the decline in international long-haul travel has been the fall in business travel, the most profitable category for airlines. This is especially true on long-haul flights, on which executives often opt for premium seating.

Videoconferencing and teleconferencing have become attractive substitutes that allow companies to cut travel budgets, particularly for intracompany trips. Covid-19 has also forced many business conferences and trade shows to go virtual or be canceled entirely, eliminating another reason for executive travel. While most of this travel will eventually return as more people get Covid-19 vaccinations, it is unlikely to recover fully over the midterm.

Regional jet delays

Meanwhile, the regional jet class is facing multiyear delays for some of its latest models as new platforms encounter development problems and as clauses in US pilot contracts limit their use. Given that many regional jets will reach typical retirement age or cumulative utilization during the forecast period, we expect many to end up flying beyond historical thresholds to cover some of the demand for smaller commercial aircraft.

It’s no exaggeration to say that modern commercial aviation has never faced such a long list of challenges as Covid-19 has created. It will likely take several years to adjust the fleet to new realities, and even then, the industry will not regain over the next 10 years all that it has lost with the pandemic.

Ian Reagan, Chad Porter, Carlo Franzoni, and Faith Lee — all of Oliver Wyman — contributed invaluable insights and research to this article.

According to the latest Oliver Wyman Fleet & Global MRO Forecast 2021-2031, released today, preservation of cash will continue to be a top priority for all segments of the industry over the next few years. While most demand will recover before the middle of the decade, there are indications that some portions of travel may not fully get back on track even after that.

Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/oliverwyman/2021/01/28/covid-19-will-limit-aviations-growth-for-10-years-new-data-shows/

Aviation

Appareo Debuts AIRS-400 4K Image Recorder

Appareo’s new AIRS-400 image recorder enables operators to implement FDM and FOQA programs.

Published

on

Appareo introduced its 4K UHD AIRS-400 airborne image recording system this week at the Aircraft Electronics Association convention in Dallas. It records cockpit audio/video and offloads data via cellular networks.

Suitable for implementation of a flight data monitoring (FDM) or flight operations quality assurance (FOQA) program, the AIRS-400 captures ambient audio, intercom audio, 4K ultra-high-definition video, and flight data from internal inertial measurement units (IMUs) and a WAAS GPS receiver. The AIRS-400 weighs 11 ounces and records altitude, latitude/longitude, groundspeed, vertical speed, attitude data (pitch, roll, yaw), rates of rotation, and acceleration data. Options include Arinc 429 input and ED-155 audio and RS-422 output.

Appareo is also developing the RDM-500 crash-hardened storage module, which meets or exceeds ED-155 survivability standards. The AIRS-400 includes its own internal crash-hardened memory that can store “two hours of video and audio, more than 200 hours of IMU flight data, and 100 hours of Arinc 429 data,” according to Appareo.

A removable SD memory card is available for offloading data, but the AIRS-400 is equipped with cellular connectivity that can transmit data when the aircraft is on the ground. Once captured, the flight data can be analyzed using Appareo’s FDM/FOQA software tools, including its EnVision web-based software. Appareo said installation and setup of AIRS-400 takes just one day.

Source: https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/general-aviation/2021-06-25/appareo-debuts-airs-400-4k-image-recorder

Continue Reading

Aviation

Ramp Manager

Abbotsford, BC Canada – Description Operational Management + Deliver superior service to customer airlines according to airline requirement. + Reviews activities cost operations and forecast data to ensure progression toward station/corporate goals and objectives. + Daily operational tracking of pe… View

Published

on

Jobs

Abbotsford, BC Canada – Description Operational Management + Deliver superior service to customer airlines according to airline requirement. + Reviews activities cost operations and forecast data to ensure progression toward station/corporate goals and objectives. + Daily operational tracking of pe… View

Ramp Manager

Abbotsford, BC Canada – Description Operational Management + Deliver superior service to customer airlines according to airline requirement. + Reviews activities cost operations and forecast data to ensure progression toward station/corporate goals and objectives. + Daily operational tracking of pe… Viewrss

Source: https://clickavio.com/ramp-manager

Continue Reading

Aviation

Latest Newfangled report Aircraft MRO market breaking the ground with Lufthansa Technik, GE Aviation, AFI KLM E&M, ST Aerospace, MTU – Market Reports

Clinical Documentation Software Market 2020-2026 | Phreesia, Aprima EHR, MEDHOST EDIS, SRS EHR, EMR-Bear, Chart Talk, CodoniX EHR, Crib Notes396

Published

on

Press Release

“Aircraft MRO Market Overview Forecast To 2026

The research report contains a detailed summary of the Global Aircraft MRO Market that includes various well-known organizations, manufacturers, vendors, key market players who are leading in terms of revenue generation, sales, dynamic market changes, end-user demands, products and services offered, restricted elements in the market, products and other processes. Technical advancements, market bifurcation, surplus capacity in the developing Aircraft MRO markets, globalization, regulations, production and packaging are some of the factors covered in this report.

The research report on Global Aircraft MRO Market is a detailed study of the current market scenario, covering the key market trends and dynamics. The report also presents a logical evaluation of the major challenges faced by the leading market players operating in the market, which helps the participants to understand the barriers and challenges they may face in future while functioning in the international market over the forecast 2020-2026.

The following manufacturers are assessed in this report in terms of sales, revenue, and market share for each company:
Lufthansa Technik, GE Aviation, AFI KLM E&M, ST Aerospace, MTU, AAR, SR Technics (Mubadala), SIA Engineering, Delta TechOps, Haeco, Ameco Beijing, Iberia Maintenance, ANA, JAL Engineering, Korean Air, KAI

Get a PDF Sample Copy (including TOC, Tables, and Figures) @
https://garnerinsights.com/Global-Aircraft-MRO-Market-Report-History-and-Forecast-2014-2025-Breakdown-Data-by-Companies-Key-Regions-Types-and-Application#request-sample

Types of Aircraft MRO covered are:
Airframe, Engine, Component, Line,

Applications of Aircraft MRO covered are:
Air Transport, BGA

The Global Aircraft MRO Market report analyses the production of goods, supply, sales, and the current status of the market in a detailed manner. Furthermore, the report examines the production shares and market product sales, as well as the capacity, production capacity, trends in sales, cost analysis, and revenue generation. Several other factors such as import/export status, industrial statistics, demand and supply ratio, gross margin, and industry chain structure have also been studied in the Global Aircraft MRO Market report.

To get this report at a profitable rate, Click Here https://garnerinsights.com/Global-Aircraft-MRO-Market-Report-History-and-Forecast-2014-2025-Breakdown-Data-by-Companies-Key-Regions-Types-and-Application#discount

Regional Analysis For Aircraft MRO Market

North America (the United States, Canada, and Mexico)
Europe (Germany, France, UK, Russia, and Italy)
Asia-Pacific (China, Japan, Korea, India, and Southeast Asia)
South America (Brazil, Argentina, Colombia, etc.)
The Middle East and Africa (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Egypt, Nigeria, and South Africa)

Get Full Report Description, TOC, Table of Figures, Chart, etc. @
https://garnerinsights.com/Global-Aircraft-MRO-Market-Report-History-and-Forecast-2014-2025-Breakdown-Data-by-Companies-Key-Regions-Types-and-Application

Table of Contents:

Study Coverage: It includes key manufacturers covered, key market segments, the scope of products offered in the global Aircraft MRO market, years considered, and study objectives. Additionally, it touches the segmentation study provided in the report on the basis of the type of product and application.

Executive Summary: It gives a summary of key studies, market growth rate, competitive landscape, market drivers, trends, and issues, and macroscopic indicators.

Production by Region: Here, the report provides information related to import and export, production, revenue, and key players of all regional markets studied.

Profile of Manufacturers: Each player profiled in this section is studied on the basis of SWOT analysis, their products, production, value, capacity, and other vital factors.

The objectives of the report are:

– To analyze and forecast the market size of Aircraft MRO Industry in the global market.
– To study the global key players, SWOT analysis, value and global market share for leading players.
– To determine, explain and forecast the market by type, end use, and region.
– To analyze the market potential and advantage, opportunity and challenge, restraints and risks of global key regions.
– To find out significant trends and factors driving or restraining the market growth.
– To analyze the opportunities in the market for stakeholders by identifying the high growth segments.
– To critically analyze each submarket in terms of individual growth trend and their contribution to the market.
– To understand competitive developments such as agreements, expansions, new product launches, and possessions in the market.
– To strategically outline the key players and comprehensively analyze their growth strategies.

Get Full Report @ https://garnerinsights.com/Global-Aircraft-MRO-Market-Report-History-and-Forecast-2014-2025-Breakdown-Data-by-Companies-Key-Regions-Types-and-Application

The growth of this market globally is subjected to various factors, including consumer ace Aircraft MRO of a lot of Aircraft MRO products, inorganic company growth models, price volatility of raw materials, product innovation along with economic prospects in both producer and consumer countries.

Conclusively, This report will provide you a clear view of each and every fact of the market without a need to refer to any other research report or a data source. Our report will provide you with all the facts about the past, present, and future of the concerned Market.

Contact Us:
Mr. Kevin Thomas
+1 513 549 5911 (US)
+44 203 318 2846 (UK)
Email: [email protected]

Latest posts by husain (see all)

The Global Aircraft MRO Market report analyses the production of goods, supply, sales, and the current status of the market in a detailed manner. Furthermore, the report examines the production shares and market product sales, as well as the capacity, production capacity, trends in sales, cost analysis, and revenue generation. Several other factors such as import/export status, industrial statistics, demand and supply ratio, gross margin, and industry chain structure have also been studied in the Global Aircraft MRO Market report.

Source: https://www.instanttechnews.com/technology-news/2021/06/06/latest-newfangled-report-aircraft-mro-market-breaking-the-ground-with-lufthansa-technik-ge-aviation-afi-klm-em-st-aerospace-mtu/

Continue Reading

Trending